The CBR has published its final May 2012 banking sector statistics: largely affected by the rouble’s 11% devaluation, they came in line with preliminary data. The key takeaways are as follows.
Loan portfolio growth accelerated to 29.0% YoY, from 28.2% in April, driven by FX revaluation in the corporate segment and further robust growth in retail (43.3% YoY).
The growth in deposits also accelerated, to 22.1% YoY from 20.6% YoY in April (also mostly due to FX revaluation) pushing LDR to 87%, from 88% in the previous month.
Provisions grew 1.6% MoM, with overdue loans up 2.5% MoM.
The May data suggests that the economy is slowing down materially, with the corporate portfolio growth mainly driven by FX revaluation. We expect retail lending growth to decelerate in 2H12 under pressure of macroeconomic factors, with total portfolio growth to decline to 20% YoY for FY12.