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1Q12 GDP growth at confirmed 4.9% YoY


According to Rosstat, the second estimate of quarterly real GDP growth for 1Q12 remained unchanged at 4.9% YoY. Besides, nominal GDP at current prices was at RUB 13,491bn (USD 446bn) last quarter.

Given that fixed capital investments have recently been revised up from 11.2% YoY to 16.3% YoY in 1Q12, the latest print is not surprising. At the same time, the extra working day in February (due to the leap year) was also supportive for the strong reading in 1Q12 in YoY terms. We are reiterating our view that the strong start will not last in 2Q12. Real GDP growth in 2Q12 is to moderate in seasonally adjusted QoQ terms (but stay rather high in YoY terms due to the base effect), dragged down by weaker investment growth and shrinking net exports (due to lower exports on weaker global demand and stronger imports).

Alexey Moiseev, Maxim Oreshkin, Daria Isakova
VTB Capital analyst

GDP, ruble, USD

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