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CPI advances 0.22% in first nine days of the month

According to Rosstat, CPI totalled 0.22% for the first nine days of June. Daily price growth accelerated to 0.028% from 0.019 the previous week, while the daily price growth for the same week a year ago was just 0.003%. The key driver of weekly price growth was vegetables (+4.2% in 5-9 June)

Weekly CPI growth accelerated during the second week of June, driven mainly by a sustained rapid increase in food (especially vegetables) prices. Meanwhile, core inflation was pushed up by robust internal demand and weaker RUB. As a result, we see upward risks for our June CPI forecast of 0.5% MoM and 3.9% YoY (vs 0.5% MoM and 3.6% YoY in May). Higher than expected CPI growth in early June might result in a more hawkish CBR statement today.

Alexey Moiseev, Maxim Oreshkin, Daria Isakova
VTB Capital analyst

CPI, inflation, ruble, CBR

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