The CBR has published its preliminary May 2012 banking sector statistics, which were largely affected by the 11% devaluation in the rouble. The key takeaways are as follows.
The corporate loan book increased 2.3% MoM while the retail loan book was up 4.0% MoM (24.7% YoY and 43.3% YoY, respectively). Meanwhile, excluding the FX revaluation effect, the corporate portfolio stayed flat MoM (-0.1% MoM) while retail increased 3.8% MoM (21.8% YoY and 43.0% YoY, respectively).
Retail deposits grew 2.0% MoM, while total corporate accounts increased 5.0% MoM (0.2% and 2.1% MoM, excluding the FX effect).
Net of the FX effect, corporate lending growth decelerated to 21.8% YoY, from 24.2% YoY in April, amid volatility on the global markets. Weak corporate lending suggests that the economy is slowing down materially and, hence, puts retail growth under question were economic conditions to deteriorate. Retail portfolio expansion has not been seriously affected by rouble devaluation but a slowdown is inevitable and we think that slower corporate growth will soothe overall FY12 growth to 20% YoY.