According to the official data, the CBR did not intervene on the local FX market during 21-25 May; the 4-week average of the CBR’s net purchases is running at USD 0.5bn (RUB 15bn). We estimate that other factors driving the headline change in the CBR’s reserves were EUR weakening against USD (-USD 2.3bn) and GBP weakening against USD (-USD 0.6bn). Given the officially published data on the CBR’s interventions and RUBBASKET performance, the regulator has been selling FX since 28 May, bringing total net purchases in May to around USD 2bn (twice less than in April).
Alexey Moiseev, Aleksandra Evtifyeva, Daria Isakova
VTB Capital analyst
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